Despite slumping to sixth place in the Premier League table after losing to local rivals Tottenham at the weekend, few are betting against Arsenal qualifying for the Champions League come the end of May.
Indeed, it’s been a rather unspectacular season at the Emirates, barring the superfluous rise of Alexis Sanchez, but this is familiar territory for the club and it’s fans; the Gunners have never failed to qualify for Europe’s most coveted tournament under Arsene Wenger, bringing his record of Champions League participation to an unrivalled 17 seasons, and no matter how poorly the north London outfit start a campaign, they always seem to do just enough to get over the line by the time it draws to a close.
In that regard, Arsenal are bona fide top four specialists, England’s eternal barometer of Champions League worthiness, so the nationwide expectancy for them to qualify yet again this year is hardly surprising. Just as Sam Allardyce has unearthed the formula for guaranteed Premier League survival, Wenger know the secrets to remain part of the European elite.
Yet, such expectancy can be a very dangerous thing, especially when it begins to blur the line with complacency as it did during the defeat at White Hart Lane on Saturday, when the Gunners went 1-0 up after eleven minutes and spent the rest of the match camping in their own penalty box, arrogantly assuming a paralleled outcome to their rearguard victory against Manchester City.
Familiarity with the top four finishes will give Arsenal’s players huge confidence in overcoming the current two-point margin during the campaign’s final run-in. They’ve all been here before; they’ll hit form between now and mid-March, subsequently steam-rolling a catalogue of consecutive wins and blowing their top four rivals out of the water. They know they have the quality to do so, they know the level of performance required, they know how to handle the pressure.
But the threats to Arsenal’s Champions League status are very real. Manchester United are currently fourth despite playing way below the standard they’re capable of for much of the season, Tottenham proved their 5-3 romping of league leaders Chelsea wasn’t simply the result of good fortune against Arsenal on Saturday, and Liverpool are hitting form at just the right time, their ambitions for the season significantly strengthened by Daniel Sturridge’s return to fitness.
And then there’s the small case of Southampton. To some, a team performing beyond their means that will inevitably crumble when the pressure begins to tell. But in my opinion, they’re the real deal; boasting a starting Xi without an obvious weakness, the best defensive record in the entirety of the Premier League and now past the hump of unenviable fixtures against the division’s top order that was supposed to curtail their campaign. Barring Chelsea, Manchester City, Tottenham and Liverpool, their run-in is a miraculously simple one.
Meanwhile, Arsenal have beaten just four of the Premier League’s top ten clubs this season and lost to six of them, are still waiting to hit top gear and, unlike the rest of the top four contenders, will soon find themselves preoccupied with the latter stages of the Champions League – not to mention retaining the FA Cup. Indeed, it seems the only argument supporting Arsenal’s Champions League credentials right now is a historical one, but Manchester United proved last season that eventually, every empire crumbles.
What concerns me most is the lack of fear surrounding Arsenal right now. Fear is healthy. Per Mertesacker commented on some dodgy defending after the Tottenham defeat and Wenger bore his teeth at the British press for asking too many questions about it, but overall discussion on the threats to their Champions League status is currently rather thin on the ground – it’s as if the manager, the players, the fans and the media already view it as a given. Selfies on instagram, cigarettes in the Southampton showers and shisha bongs in trendy nightclubs appear to have taken priority.
That expectancy, that sense of self-entitlement, that assumed divine right to Champions League football, could be what ultimately costs Arsenal a place in the top four this season. They be slipping towards complacency, fat from their continued participation in the tournament, but Manchester United, Tottenham, Liverpool and Southampton, four clubs recently starved of top tier European football in comparison to the Gunners, certainly aren’t.
